| U.S. inflation eases in June, but higher oil prices cloud outlook |
U.S. inflation slowed in June, with the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation measure, rising 3.7% year over year, down from 4.1% in May, while monthly prices slipped 0.1%, the weakest reading since April 2020. Core PCE, which excludes food and energy, increased 3.3% annually and 0.1% from the previous month, reflecting a temporary decline in oil prices during a short-lived U.S.-Iran ceasefire. Economists cautioned that the easing is unlikely to last, as renewed conflict in the Middle East has pushed Brent crude back above $90 a barrel and U.S. gasoline prices above $4 a gallon, increasing the risk of renewed inflationary pressure. The Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged at 3.50%–3.75%, although three policymakers favored a rate hike, and markets expect borrowing costs to rise as early as September. Meanwhile, consumer spending rose 0.3% in June, personal income increased 0.2%, and the household saving rate fell to 2.7%, its lowest level since June 2022, raising concerns that consumer spending could weaken later this year as tax refund benefits fade.