U.S. labor costs rise by most in 12 months |
The Labor Department's employment cost index (ECI), a measure of worker salaries and benefits, rose 1.2% in the first quarter, higher than the 0.9% growth seen in the fourth quarter of 2023, and above the Dow Jones consensus estimate for a 1% increase. Higher benefits costs helped drive the index to its biggest quarterly increase in a year. They shot up to 1.1% from a 0.7% gain the prior quarter, while wage and salary growth was unchanged at 1.1%. On an annual basis, the index that measures changes in wages and benefits held pat at 4.2% for the year ending in March. The biggest pay gains were seen in the public sector, where compensation over the 12 months grew 4.8%. Federal Reserve officials are closely monitoring the trajectory of wage gains, out of concerns that accelerated compensation growth may serve as an inflation pressure. The central bank is holding its latest policymaking meeting this week and is expected to announce today that interest rates will remain unchanged. “The Fed would now need to see a spectacular rollover in payrolls in May and June and equally spectacular inflation numbers in order to cut rates in June,” Ian Shepherdson, chief economist for Pantheon Macroeconomics, wrote in a note issued Tuesday. “That’s possible but the ECI has raised the bar for easing to the point where we now have to look for the first move in September instead.”